Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 218.357574 263.101484 317.679939 390.154806 485.407728 608.568431 7.836719e+02
2025-08-24 160.217732 209.901657 277.764223 380.353215 537.419172 779.738964 1.206383e+03
2025-08-31 128.099475 177.260190 249.690048 369.621328 575.260937 940.189983 1.712899e+03
2025-09-07 116.257263 169.046552 252.454605 403.171232 692.757269 1289.394370 2.854124e+03
2025-09-14 102.410504 154.337835 240.703900 407.455292 758.025017 1576.304536 4.183818e+03
2025-09-21 93.146948 144.981241 235.332175 420.977442 847.016609 1977.111334 6.452762e+03
2025-09-28 83.630576 133.447915 223.517894 418.013899 897.822393 2319.497968 9.233013e+03
2025-10-05 80.393526 132.277509 230.461918 456.371126 1069.518362 3189.233639 1.736085e+04
2025-10-12 76.686209 129.576104 233.750807 487.528898 1240.575106 4275.060408 3.344449e+04
2025-10-19 72.652729 125.601410 233.587340 510.364720 1401.992932 5576.514632 6.636806e+04
2025-10-26 68.432715 120.640585 230.361613 524.445822 1545.216121 7067.479545 1.365707e+05
2025-11-02 64.063336 114.795765 224.145751 528.677893 1657.535221 8644.827344 2.894851e+05
2025-11-09 58.991768 107.120612 213.029382 517.517922 1711.217338 10047.741793 6.178703e+05
2025-11-16 54.335848 99.818530 201.744607 503.212435 1746.871830 11492.380747 1.467909e+06
2025-11-23 50.192779 93.154459 190.995136 487.814066 1770.568226 12989.464187 4.147967e+06
2025-11-30 49.601283 94.111651 199.099478 536.004323 2155.061447 20709.252910 1.511369e+09
2025-12-07 47.099842 90.526444 195.099381 542.190132 2324.027870 26863.477101 NaN
2025-12-14 45.361819 88.475699 194.785582 561.764041 2600.637529 38255.286155 NaN
2025-12-21 42.878834 84.442453 188.545717 557.468078 2721.549368 47933.948520 NaN
2025-12-28 42.632955 85.630333 196.855561 613.328243 3361.970799 91919.743498 NaN
2026-01-04 41.946738 85.679910 201.991889 659.103143 4021.283769 177555.078214 NaN
2026-01-11 40.898233 84.721993 204.037077 692.870962 4654.926828 343049.931861 NaN
2026-01-18 39.567135 82.917074 203.249750 713.782928 5216.675695 655885.057389 NaN